The Iraqi Grid Electrical Demand: Questionable Forecast


Electricity sector in Iraq has faced many problems and obstacles which have a great effect on the development and upgrading of the sector. Such problems involve the uncertainty of the load forecast which is partly due to the sudden rise in the consumer buying power after 2003 coupled with the electricity generation deficit. Various factors have led to this situation, such as the international blockade on Iraq, limited investments, fossil fuel delivery, successive wars, security issues and many others.The present work focuses on the load forecast for the Iraqi power network for the period (2016-2030). Two forecasting methods are dealt with here, viz. the averaging method and the maximum–minimum both proposed and implemented. Both methods produced a fairly matching load growth profile with the load forecast has been done under load shedding circumstances. The results obtained were close to the adopted load forecasts for the years 2015 and 2016.Microsoft Excel program was used to conduct the load forecast study. Data implemented were obtained from the National Dispatch Center (NDC) and the Planning and Studies Office (P&SO) / Ministry of Electricity.