The Prediction of Future Oil Wells Production from Decline Curve Pattern


The production decline analysis is a traditional method of identifying wells production pattern and predicting its performance and life based on real production data. The study of the application the production decline curves using one of the empirical models either the exponential, hyperbolic or the harmonic decline curves which occur often in the later life of production units has been done. Decline curve analysis applies oil production versus time plots to extrapolate an estimation of the future production rates for wells. Production data were plotted in different ways to identify a representative decline model. In this study, the historical data were provided from five oil wells of the 4th pay formation reservoir in Zubair field in southern Iraq (Basrah region). These data were used to estimate the total future recovery of petroleum and the end of a productive life to the economic limit. The relationships between production rate, time, and cumulative production for each well were studied. The production data points for each well were analyzed separately to evaluate the effect of the change in the production and reservoir conditions on the remaining reserves. The typical decline curve was applied in each oil well and the estimation of total reserves isn’t changing with the time or by the workover action.