Conflict Resolution On Lesser Zab And Diyala Rivers Basins Using Game Theory Approach (Part-I)


The Iraqi water shares from Lesser Zab River (LZR) and Diyala River (DR) is greatly affected by Iranian intensions and attitudes because of its geographic positions as a source country. Consequently, it becomes so warrant to adopt some arrangements that regulate the water relations between those two countries. The current study is an attempt toward finding a reasonable solution for the potential conflict between Iraq and Iran over LZR and DR.The water facts on those rivers are pointed out that the annual average flows recorded during 70's of the last century were 6.2 and 6.0 BCM for LZR and DR respectively. However, and over the last 20 years or so, these flows have been reduced to only 4.8 and 3.3 BCM respectively. The calculated future demand in the Iranian side of the LZR is estimated to be 0.175 BCM, while the demand in the Iraqi side is around 7.2 BCM. As far as DR is of concern, Iran consumes 3.1 BCM and Iraqi needs are 9.9 BCM. It is clear that the future demands is surpassed the expected future supply from the two rivers. One can conclude that the conflict between Iraq and Iran over LZR and DR is imminent. Part-I of the study is concerning with the application of Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR-II) which is rooted in game theory and system engineering approaches, for the purpose of resolving the potential water conflict between Iraq and Iran over LZR and DR. While Part-II, is to find a simplified method to facilitate the application of the solution that emerges from the part-I in a practical and systematic manner. This will be the subject of a subsequent paper.