القدرة التنافسية لصادرات الكزبرة المصرية في أهم الأسواق الدولية

Abstract

Medicinal and aromatic plants are non-traditional agricultural crops which grown either for medical or industrial purposes. The medical and aromatic oils industry is considered one of the promising industries. Egypt has a competitive advantage in producing and exporting these crops, both raw materials and essential oils. The decline in the value of coriander exports from about 1718.4 thousand dollars in 2000 to about 415.7 thousand dollars in 2017, a decrease of about 75.8% in 2000, which necessitated the study of the economics of production and export of coriander and study the most important determinants of increasing demand in the world markets, The study found that the total value of coriander exports during the period 2000-2017 reached a trend of about 61.13 thousand dollars representing about 4.5% of the average value of exports of coriander yield of about 1420.2 thousand dollars for the same period. The quantity of coriander exports during the same period was taken in a decreasing trend with about 112.6 tons representing about 9.5% of the average quantity of coriander exports of about 1181.6 tons for the same period. while a review of the evolution of the export price of coriander during the same period showed that it took an upward trend of about 115.6 dollars / ton representing about 7.9% of the average export price of coriander yield of about 1470 dollars / ton for the same period. The competitiveness of exports of coriander was also measured by calculating some of the competitiveness indicators including market share index, market penetration rate, price ratio index, virtual comparative advantage index, geographical concentration index (Gini Hirschman) and the index of instability. The measurement of the external demand function on the quantity of Egyptian exports of coriander in the foreign markets depends on the total local production of coriander in tons, the total local consumption of coriander in tons, the total amount of Bulgarian exports of coriander in tons. It was also found that these variables explain about 65.1% of the changes in the quantity of Egyptian exports of coriander to the foreign markets. The results of the prediction of the quantity of Egyptian coriander exports using the Box-Genkis method (ARIMA) until 2022 indicate that the increase in the quantity of Egyptian coriander exports from about 407.6 tons in 2017 to about 893.6 tons in 2022 is expected to increase by about 486 tons representing about 119.2% compared to 2017. Based on the results obtained, the research found some recommendations that could benefit the economic policy makers in this field.