Determine of the Most Important Factors that Affect the Incidence of Heart Disease Using Logistic Regression Model (Applied Study in Erbil Hospital)

Abstract

Heart disease is a term that refers to a variety of different types of diseases that infect the heart. In 2007, heart disease is at the top of the causes of death in the United States, United Kingdom and Canada. In the United States, there are around 25.40% of all deaths are attributed to these diseases (Wikipedia). In 2015, about 17.7 million people deaths due to heart disease, accounting for 31% of all deaths in the world in the same year.According of World Health Organization, more than three-quarters of deaths from cardiovascular disease occur in low- and middle-income countries such as Syria, Yemen and our country ;Iraq. In this study, a logistic regression model is used to describe the relationship between the binary dependent response variable (infected, uninfected) and set of independent variables (eight binary variables) to identify the most important factors affecting heart disease. We applied the logistic regression on the data represent a sample of a group of patients at the specialized surgery hospital in Erbil (200 patients). The application study indicated some interesting factors that effect on the heart disease such as smoking, obesity and alcoholism.Keywords: Logistic regression, heart disease, likelihood ratio test, Wald test, Hosmer & Lemeshow test