An econometric analysis of the demand for meat (poultry, red meat, fish) in Iraq for the period 2004-2018 using Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS)


The research aimed to study and analyze the current demand for meat consumption (poultry, red meat, and fish) in Iraq. and identifying the most important factors affecting the demand for meat, as the demand for meat in Iraq was estimated during the period (2004-2018), using Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), Is estimated by Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR). The research found a set of results, the most important of which are: There is an increase in the percentage of consumer spending in Iraq on red meat compared to the consumption expenditure on poultry and fish. As it reached about 75%, 14% and 11%, respectively. This means that the Iraqi consumer prefers red meat over poultry and fish to meet his needs of animal protein. The results of estimating the Uncompensated Own Price indicate that the demand for poultry and fish is inelastic, as the response of the consumed quantity of these commodities to price changes decreases, while the demand for red meat is elastic, as the consumed quantity of this commodity increases in response to price changes. As for the results of the estimation of Compensated Own Price Elasticity, through the indication and value of the elasticity modulus, it is clear that poultry, red meat and fish are considered complementary goods, Except for red meat with poultry prices, the substitution relationship was As for the indication and value of the expenditure elasticity factor, each of the meats (poultry, red meat, and fish) are considered essential commodities for the Iraqi consumer during the study period and in view of the increase in spending elasticities on poultry, fish and red meat, The research recommended the need for attention and expansion to increase production of poultry. and focus on fish farming, to ensure that the two commodities are available at reasonable prices to consumers with limited incomes, In addition to encouraging the raising and production of red meat, Also, the necessity to encourage breeders and provide them with fodder at reasonable prices. Which leads to increased production of meat, and work to develop genetically improved and high-productivity lines, and the use of modern technologies and the intensification of breeding and production processes, through which it can achieve a significant increase in production and productivity.