Using Bayesian and Maximum likelihood Methods to Estimate the Survival function for NTPLD of Patients with covid-19


Abstract : This article aims to estimate the survival function of patients infected with Covid-19 virus in AlDiwaniyah city by using a new proposed formula for the New Two Parameters Lindley Distribution (NTPLD), which is one of the important continuous probability distributions that has two positive parameters( a > 0, b > 0), where the real data were fitted using Chi-Square statistics using Matlab program and the new NTPLD distribution was compared with some other distributions such as TPLD1, TPLD2 and Frechet distribution , we conclude that the new proposed Lindley distribution achieved the lowest criteria (-2LnL, AIC , AICc BIC HQIC) compared with the other distributions , which indicates that the new proposed distribution of the real data is more appropriates than the other distributions. Then, we estimated the survival function of the NTPLD distribution using two methods of estimation, the MLE method and the Bayes method. It was concluded that the MLE method is the best in estimating the reliability function (the survival function) for the new proposed NTPLD distribution.