Khassa Chay Stream Flow Forecasting by Markove Autoregressive AR. Model.(eng)


Abstract In this research a successfull analysis of the monthly mean of Khassa Chay stream flow record for the period (1941-2001) was adopted, then the Markove Autoregressive AR model was fitted to the resulted stochastic component of the seies, then suitable tests were done to detect the order of the model. Also another decision whether the parameter of this model should be constant or periodic was decided after testing the model. The parameters of this model were found and used to generate the monthly flow for 56 years ahead. It was concluded that Markove AR scheme is adequate to describe the structure of the monthly mean Khassa chay stream flow and the periodic type of this model is more realistic than the constant type because the high sensitivity to errors. Keywords: Stochastic component , Autoregressive MarkoveAR, Periodic, constant, Model parameters.