Measuring the general trend of the sectorial growth elasticities of the major sectors in Iraq using the method of the Box Jenkins for the period( – )

Abstract

:Since the prediction is the basis of every strategic planning, relying on modern scientific and statistical methods, such method are important method of time series analysis, and suffer some of the standard models that rely on time series of the problem of what is known as false slope and the content of this problem is that if the variables the time series is not as stable as most time series. Therefore, the t-test cannot be used to determine the effect of a variable on the other variable. Joint integration can overcome this problem by focusing on the residual behavior of this model, There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between two or more variables. This has been demonstrated by the study. The variables of the study are stable at equal levels except for the growth rate of agriculture. Thus, estimates of the predictive values are more accurate and the general trend tests of the time series of the study variables. The values of the sectorial elasticities will remain low except for the (agriculture) sector due to the low investment allocations. This requires increasing the investment allocations for sectors where the results have been low, MI on the development of agriculture and industry sectors and diversification of production to make the economy more