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A combined 2-dimensional fuzzy regression model to study effect of climate change on the electrical peak load

Hamed Shakouri G. --- Hosain Zaman

Iraqi Journal for Electrical And Electronic Engineering المجلة العراقية للهندسة الكهربائية والالكترونية
ISSN: 18145892 Year: 2010 Volume: 6 Issue: 1 Pages: 45-49
Publisher: Basrah University جامعة البصرة

Abstract

The intergovernmental panel for climate change predictedthat the average temperature of our planet surface willincrease by 1.4–5.8 °C by the end of 21th century. Limitedresources of energy in joint to the effect of temperature onthe energy consumption together attract our attention to thetemperature changes phenomenon. Therefore, researcheshave focused on the problem, which is the effect of climatechange on the energy consumption.Zmeureanu and Renaud proposed a method forestimation of the impact of climate change on heat energyconsumption in households sector [1]. Peirson and Henleyconsider it as a dynamic problem and also shown that byusing autoregressive specification we can obtain a goodexplanation of present load [2]. Pardo et al. studied therelationship between weather and electricity demand inSpain. They proposed a transfer function intervention modelto predict the electricity demand in the hot and cold days [3].Bessec and Fouquau studied the relationship betweentemperature and electricity consumption in 15 countries ofEuropean Union. They showed the nonlinearity link betweenelectricity consumption and temperature found in morelimited geographical areas in previous studies; also theyshowed that the sensitivity between electricity consumptionand temperature increases in summer [4]. Franco and

Keywords

fuzzy regression --- electricity consumption --- climate change