Some Possible Hydro-Economic Effects of Ilisu Dam Project Within the Overall Effects of Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP)

Abstract

AastractEconomically, the Ilisu dam project, together with the othercomponents of GAP, is a logical response to population growth whichthe Republic of Turkey witnessed over the period 1950-2006, andwitnessing now (2008), as well as the developmental effortsundertaken by the Turkish government to enable the economy toabsorb the growing labour force, and to reduce income and livinginequality within the GAP region and between this region and theother regions of the Turkish economy. This necessitated, amongother things, the expansion of agricultural productive capacity, thusactual agricultural production, not only to feed the rapidly increasingpopulation as well as supplying the other sectors with agriculturalinputs, but to avoid the possible worsening of the problem of priceinflationand current account deficit in Turkey. The growingpopulation base, and the associated developmental efforts conductedby the Turkish government in the recent past, at present, and in theforeseeable future all are associated with a given average annual flowof the Euphrates–Tigris rivers (within Turkey) of no more than 55billion cubic meter. Based on this fact, and other data, the authorargues that - in the absence of a binding water sharing and water* Ph.D. in Economics, University of Southampton, U. K.(12 ) مركز الدراسات الإقليمية دراسات إقليمية 5management agreement of the Euphrates-Tigris flow betweenTurkey and Iraq – if Turkey were to go ahead with the Ilisu dam,along with the other components of the GAP, the combined averageannual flow of the Euphrates-Tigris rivers would be reduced, at theIraqi borders, to some 40% of the 1960-1970 average flow. The mainconclusion of this study is, therefore, as follows: in the absence of theaforementioned agreement, the construction of Ilisu dam, along withthe other components of GAP, may enable Turkey to achieve a sortof sustainable agricultural and economic development. However, thatdevelopment will very likely be at the expense of agriculturaldevelopment in Iraq… One of the victims of such "sustainabledevelopment", in Turkey, will almost certainly be the reconstructionproject of the marshlands of Lower Mesopotamia.Keywords: Population growth, Agricultural productive capacity, Irrigated land,Cereal output, Marshlands, Annual rate of flow, Ecosystem, Populationconference, Binding water agreement.