The Impact of Oil Revenues Fluctuations on Macroeconomic Indicators and Financial Markets Performance of Arab-Gulf Countries

Abstract

The dependence of most Arab Gulf countries on oil as a basic commodity and as an only source of its revenues for financing their development programs has subjected their economies to unsystematic fluctuations that are being felt in international oil markets, on the macro economies of these countries and on the performance their financial markets. The significance of this research lies in the relations between the fluctuations in oil market and the performance of financial markets coupled with the desired need for in-depth theoretical analysis. The research aims at structuring appropriate theoretical paths for the two markets and the repercussion of these fluctuations on the indicators of the performance of financial markets, assuming a positive relation between oil market fluctuation and financial markets. The theoretical framework consists of cyclical fluctuations; crude oil markets and their relations to financial markets. While the empirical aspects analyze the relation between oil market fluctuation and measuring their impact on financial market performance in those countries.So far most research dealing with the relations between the two markets, financial and oil, has been conducted in oil-importing advance Western economies with highly developed financial markets. This situation obviously differs from those economies whose national products rely on one major resource such as Arab Gulf countries whose financial markets are still in their infancy. And in order to examine whether this hypothesis is true or not, a couple of approaches are used in association: the first descriptive one by relying on theoretical studies concerning oil market fluctuations and macro-variables on the one hand, and the focus on macro-variables (including oil market returns) and stock-market performance on the other hand. The second approach depend on these major equations for currency-market indices (MARKET CAPITALIZATION, VALUE TRADED, LOCAL INDEX)