جدول المحتويات

تنمية الرافدين

ISSN: 1609591X
الجامعة: جامعة الموصل
الكلية: الادارة والاقتصاد
اللغة: Arabic and English

This journal is Open Access

حول المجلة

تهتم مجلة تنمية الرافدين بنشر البحوث في المجالات الاقتصادية والادارية والمعلوماتية واوراقهم العلمية الرصينة التي تخضع الى التحكيم من قبل لجنة من الخبراء حسب الاختصاص قبل عملية النشر، وتستقبل بحوث السادة الباحثين العراقيين والعرب والاجانب على حد سواء وباللغتين العربية والانكليزية، وقد تأسست المجلة عام ١٩٧٩، وتُصدر المجلة اعدادها بشكل فصلي أي بواقع اربعة اعداد في السنة، وقد أصدرت المجلة العدد ١١٣ الى حد الان

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معلومات الاتصال

دورية تنمية الرافدين ص.ب 78
كلية الادارة والاقتصاد جامعة الموصل
موبايل: 07707488885
فاكس وطني: 060814433
e-mail: talrafidain@yahoo.com
website:tanmiat-rafidain.com

جدول المحتويات السنة: 2010 المجلد: 32 العدد: 100

Article
Using Financial Analysis Techniques to Predict the Failure of Contributing Industrial Companies
استخدام اساليب التحليل المالي في التنبؤ بفشل الشركات المساهمة الصناعية: دراسة على عينة من الشركات المساهمة الصناعية العراقية المدرجة في سوق العراق للاوراق المالية

المؤلفون: Waheed M. Rammo وحيد محمود رمو
الصفحات: 9-29
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الخلاصة

Abstract The failure of company is considered to be the most important subjects studied by many authors and researchers as for the passive impacts that might result from them on the national economy as well as on the whole society. Therefore, several researchers started to find a method by which they can predict failure before it takes place. As a result, enormous studies used the financial rates as tools for certain statistical models based on both single and multiple distinction analysis techniques for the possibility of failure prediction. These have emerged Altman Model, as well as other applicable models. The present research aims at finding a reliable technique for failure prediction through applying the Altman Model in a number of Iraqi contributing companies. The importance of the research has come from the significance of failure subject among many parties related to the company. The research problem lies in that the Iraqi contributing companies, investors and other parties are not aware of risks that lead the companies to failure in the future. The model was applied on a sample consisted of (17) Iraqi contributing company after obtaining the necessary information about them. Several findings were attained; the most important of which is Altman Model’s accuracy in predicting the failure of Iraqi companies. The study concluded that Altman Model for failure prediction should be adopted as a technique of financial analysis reliable to the evaluation of companies’ performance. Key words: Financial Analysis, Predict the Failure, Companies.

الكلمات الدلالية

Financial Analysis --- Predict the Failure --- Companies


Article
A Study of Detecting Outliers in Time Series Using Simulation
استخدام أسلوب المحاكاة لاكتشاف القيم الشاذة في السلاسل الزمنية

المؤلفون: Abdalla M. EL-HABIL عبدالله الهيبل
الصفحات: 9-20
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الخلاصة

In this paper, simulations for detecting outliers and studying their effects on the values of AR(1) time series, transfer function model with one-input variable, transfer function model with two-input variables processes, and simultaneous transfer function (STF) are conducted using the STFMODEL JOINTMDL paragraph in the Scientific Computing Associate Corporation (SCA) program. A simulation of a transfer function model is conducted to check its validity. By using the SCA program, Victor Gomez and Agustin Maravall's example for detecting outliers in time series by TRAMO program is pursued. The conclusion, which we come up with, is that the presence of outliers, depending on their nature, may have a moderate to substantial impact on the effectiveness of the standard methodology for time series analysis with respect to model identification, estimation, and forecasting.


Article
Product Technology Structure and Its Impact on an Achievement the Customer Relationship Management Objectives
هيكل تقانة المنتج وأثره في تحقيق أهداف إدارة علاقات الزبون دراسة استطلاعية لآراء المدراء في معمل الألبسة الولادية في الموصل

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الخلاصة

Abstract The research tries to measuring the effect of Product Technology Structure on achievement of Customer Relationship Management Objectives in the Factory of Ready – Made Clothes in Mosul. The Customer Relationship Management Objectives considered as important means and via it, the Organization can Increase sales, profits, and improve its reputation in marketplace. So, the Organizations must work to achieve these objectives through focusing on Product Technology Structure, because it is considered as important strategies that can through it Introduces product with new design and makes adjusting and improvement on the current products, in order to contribute to achieve these objectives. Because of the Limitedness of studies which deals with relationship and effect between these variables and especially in the Iraqi Environment, the researcher strive for implying these dimensions with their variables in the present research within total framework as an attempt for analyzing the relationship and impact between them. The research reached many conclusions, one of most important is the significant impact and relationship between Product Technology Structure and Customer Relationship Management Objectives after testing hypotheses associated with these variables in organization under research.


Article
Influences of Export Raw and Industrial Wood on Forest Utilization in Selected Countries (Indonesia, Malaysia)
تأثير الصادرات الخشبية الخامة والمصنعة على استثمار الغابات في دول غاباتية نامية مختارة

المؤلفون: Shahla Abd-Al-Razak شهلة عبدالرزاق بشير
الصفحات: 55-66
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الخلاصة

Abstract Exports in general is one of the important pillars in the evolution of national economies of the group advanced and developing countries, but developed countries seek to export goods with high-assisted techniques applied by the scientific, economic, industrial exports, and thus to provide direct support to the economies of these countries. The degree will be varied in implementing the export of any raw or manufactured goods and a group of developing countries. The trend is towards the development of industry and services as well as to advance the economic development that to go forward in this case, some manufactured goods, while other developing countries can boldest complex manufacturing processes for goods raw conversion into manufactured exports, which forced out the urgent need for foreign currencies and the weak economy, which not serve on the development of industry and services sectors and the result of the application of quantitative mathematical models to determine the relationship and effects of exports of raw timber and processed in a sample of countries (Indonesia and Malaysia) show that the effects were different for exports of raw timber and processed timber and the area remains forest production and forest area represented a changing economy, the gross domestic product in Indonesia, the results were more pronounced than in Malaysia has emerged through the use of statistical models of linear regression coefficients that are consistent with the hypothesis of the results of research and studies in place and the other for the former do not agree, particularly in Malaysia which requires attention is the implementation of the Forests and the production Permanent continuing to support the forest sector and make it the best form of his or her duties.

الكلمات الدلالية

Export Raw Wood --- Export Industrial wood --- Forest Products --- Development Country


Article
Agricultural Policy And Wide View Of Achieving Food Security Indicators About Syrian Agricultural Economic
السياسة الزراعية وآفاق تحقيق الأمن الغذائي مؤشرات عن الاقتصاد الزراعي السوري

المؤلفون: Imad H. Al-Najaffi عماد حسن النجفي
الصفحات: 67-81
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الخلاصة

Abstract The government interference in planning agricultural policy is considered as essential issue for its important role in re customizing the economic resources and mapping the price base integrated with agricultural policy. The government also plays a great role in consumer protections, promoting the products and improving the ratio of commercial exchange between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. It pays more attention to relative prices of agricultural crops, because the mechanism of the market shows its failure in achieving the above - mentioned goals. Therefore, the research aimed at declaring the role of Syrian Agricultural Policy in increasing the rate of agricultural growth. It is hypothesized that government interference in mapping the agriculture policy shared by increasing agricultural production and achieving self - sufficiency of agricultural crops and so far achieving surplus for exportation.


Article
Marketing Knowledge and Sustainability of Competitive Advantage
المعرفة التسويقية واستدامة الميزة التنافسية دراسة ميدانية في عينة من المنظمات الصناعية في محافظة نينوى

المؤلفون: Raad A. Raoof رعد عدنان رؤوف
الصفحات: 83-99
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الخلاصة

Abstract Several organizations in expanding the creative thinking are however facing numerous challenges imposed by current market situations. This may need to cope with the current conditions via innovative procedures compatible with treating the new competitions in the modern markets. On this basis, the marketing knowledge is reckoned to be the pivotal principle to support the strategies of the organization toward success, progress and secure the entrepreneurship through sustaining comparative advantages and the ability of precise diagnosis for the competitive poles. The current research sought to academic and field problem that is related to the organizational ability to face the competition in the markets to map out the starting point towards the regional and international markets. The main aim of the research is to see the marketing knowledge and sustainable competitive advantage and sustainable competitive advantage. So, it is hypothesized that first related to the correlation between marketing knowledge and sustainable competitive advantage. The two researchers reach to a group of conclusions related to the research problem


Article
Debts and Arab Agriculture: Economic Elements
المديونية والزراعة العربية المتضمنات الاقتصادية

المؤلفون: Iman M. Mostafa إيمان مصطفى رشاد مصطفى
الصفحات: 101-115
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الخلاصة

Abstract Since old times, the developing world countries have been in continues attrition. The debts and the payments have become a part of global fortunes attritions of these countries. Therefore, this sort of debt has become acute automation for practicing coercive power and a new strategy to control the other resources. Debts have sought to deprive populations from the prerequisites, hence, it become the most crucial hinder of preventing the sustainable development. One of the most magnificent reasons of debts aggravations is ignoring the agricultural reasons, it is one of the most essential sectors in Arab countries depended by many in the society. The ignorance of this sector had led to the limited participation in the local gross of Arab countries. These countries have demonstrated projects with unpredictable low income. The maladministration of these debts made many loans went to unproductive and entertainment sectors than the productive ones. The importance of this research have been mapped through the issue of foreign loans that is a unified Arabic issue itself, several votes have been gradually transcended to re tabulate, or abrogate them. The aim of the current research is to measure and analyze the effect of these debts on the agricultural sector. It is hypothesized that these debts have undesirable effects on the economies of these countries almost the agricultural ones. The problem of the research on that there are no actual strategies and procedures to terminate the burdens of debts and extenuate the effects. Statistical analysis has been used to saw that the most important variables affecting negatively in the agricultural sector in several Arab countries is the debts


Article
Directions of Developing the Arabic Intermediate Trade From 1996-2007
اتجاهات تطور التجارة الخارجية العربية البينية للمدة 1996-2007

المؤلفون: أكرم حنا داؤود
الصفحات: 117-134
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الخلاصة

Abstract The Arab intermediate trade is considered as very important in the Arab economy, where it helps the exports to promote the surplus of commodities and services among the Arab states, and the imports to meet the needs of the increasing local demand, as well as, beside its reaction with the industrial, agricultural and service activities participated in its economical growth and development. Also, it constitutes a very little rate of the Arab foreign trade which reached to % 10 as an average of the research at best times. This needs to a number of the main requirements such as: developing ground, naval and air ways, as well as, using means of technical communications, and ensuring the financial sources. They are considered the cornerstone to develop the material base and activating the situated industries and developing the related services. Finding new industries may help in developing the Arab intermediate trade. Arab intermediate trade plays an important role in Arab economy, the Arab countries have to affiliate to this type of trade, and increase this rate to more than % 25 during the few next years and passing the factors which lead to weaken the Arab intermediate trade such as: canceling the taxes among the Arab countries imposes on exports and imports, leaving the political disagreements among the Arab countries. This influenced the intermediate trade exchange, encouraging the mutual Arab investment, and securing the intermediate Arab exports and imports, as well as, activating the Economic Unity Council to make a number of measurements lead to activate the Arab intermediate trade


Article
The Impact of External Debts in Value Good Balances of Cereals in Some Selected Arab Countries: A Comparative Study
أثر المديونية الخارجية في قيمة الموازين السلعية للحبوب في بلدان عربية مختارة - دراسة مقارنة-

المؤلفون: Amina A. Al-Hasson
الصفحات: 135-149
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الخلاصة

Abstract External debts are considered one of the most important issues faced by Arab countries in the passed decades, as they are an obstacle against achieving development. They began in fifties on an international level and their features became clearer in nineties when the amount of debts aggravated as a result of malfunctioning them. It was clear that there was internal and external causes that contributed in increasing the burdens of debts including the deficit in the general balance and the deterioration in the terms of commercial exchange. It was obvious from the model used that there is an increase in the relative importance of the structural reform programs in affecting the value of the good balances of cereals in (2006) in comparison with the year (2003). In general, the influence of the whole independent variables did not exceed (50%) for the whole population in (2003). But, it increased to high international levels in (2006), indicating the great influence of the basic structure of debts on the value of good balances of cereals in Arab countries. The study recommends that there is a necessity to plan structural agriculture policies concerning the external debts and rescheduling them in a way that minimizes their impacts and reflections on the basic structure of these countries economies.


Article
The Range of Understanding the Marketing Deception by Jordanian Tourists Practiced Travel Agencies An Analytical Study
مدى إدراك السياح الأردنيين للخداع التسويقي الذي تمارسه وكالات السياحة والسفر دراسة تحليلية ميدانية

المؤلفون: Asa’d H. Abu-Rumman أسعد حماد أبو رمان
الصفحات: 151-175
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الخلاصة

Abstract This study is one of the important topics of interest to the consumer deception. The importance of this issue is increased in light of the skyrocket price rises experienced by many countries in making the possibility of deceit against consumers more realistic. This study aims to focus on the importance of such practices in the tourism sector, specially on tourists who have Jordanian tourists through travel agencies and travel (tourism groups).The study deals with a sample of (176) Jordanian tourists to detect deception practices in marketing mix elements (7p’s). The study found that travel and tourism agencies practiced deception strongly Jordanian tourists in the mean (4.2), The study revealed through on factor analysis (ANOVA) that the price was more marketing mix elements of the deception practiced with (%22.7)variance, followed by tourism product (%8.8)variance Then the physical evidence, promotion, personnel, procedures and processes, and finally distribution, beside that the study showed that the Jordanian tourist accept deception marketing in the case of low prices and the limited choices and high quality of the tourism program.

الكلمات الدلالية

marketing --- tourism. --- تسويق، تسويق سياحي


Article
The Relation between Ownership Structure and Capital Structure: Evidence from Jordanian industrial Firms 2004-2008
العلاقة بين تركيبة الملكية وتركيبة رأس المال في الشركات الصناعية الأردنية دراسة تطبيقية للفترة 2004-2008

المؤلفون: Qays A. Al-Kaylani قيس أديب الكيلاني
الصفحات: 177-188
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الخلاصة

Abstract This study aims to examine the possible relation between ownership structure and capital structure in the industrial firms in Jordan. The publications of the Jordan securities commission for a sample of such firms (ten in number) has been listed in Amman Stock Exchange for the period 2004 to 2008. The multiple regressions at %5 significant level have also been used. Many results have been reached, the most important are: The Jordanian industrial firms tend to use ownership financing to finance their activities, the debt ratio average in such firms is %28.79. The members of the board of directors of such firms own about %46.4 of the firm's stock which is relatively high rate. Big stock holders own about %52.8 of the shares of such firms. Also find that there is no statistically significant evidence that the ownership structure affect the Capital structure in the Jordanian industrial firms.


Article
The Technological Strategy and Competitive Advantage in the Third Millennium: Approach of Added Value Theoretical Study
الإستراتيجية التقنية والميزة التنافسية في الألفية الثالثة: مدخل القيمة المضافة دراسة نظرية

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الخلاصة

Abstract The organizational performance in general and the environmental performance in particular are considered to be part of the fundamental aspects in bringing about sustainable development in business organizations during Third Millennium. This research discusses ways of how to adopt model of Value Chains as approaches in reinforcing the environmental performance by relying on the capabilities provided by technical strategies, in achieving excellence performance. This research started with discussing the concept of Information Technology (IT) and its importance, in addition to explain the contribution of the technological strategy and Added Value under the environmental role of the organizations; as well as discussing the concepts of IT capabilities, their development and types. In its second part, the research tried to state the most important general guidelines of the Organizational Performance and especially the Environmental Performance. To arriving at its essential issue, the discussion of the adoption of the model of Value Chain as an approach to reinforcing the environmental performance through the use of IT capabilities. Finally, the research ended by stating the most important conclusions and suggestions that have been reached by this research.


Article
The Phenomenon of Unemployment between College Graduates of University of Dohuk
ظاهرة البطالة بين خريجي كليات جامعة دهوك (الأسباب والمعالجات)

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الخلاصة

Abstract The world countries of various economic and political systems are currently facing unemployment problem, which has been considered as a major difficulty. Despite the fact that the problem is obviously emerged in the developing countries, because of the undermined economic structure, the levels of GDPs and investment, however, has threatened the developed countries, although their technical and industrial progress. Hence, these countries are often trying to restrict the problem of unemployment as for study and research that can be seen as economic and social problem. The objective of the study is to diagnose the reasons behind the problem and to see the social and economic impacts upon and suggesting solutions to solve it, especially with regard to the undergraduates. The importance of research extracted from the fact that unemployment is considered to be serious economic and social problem that have deep impact and multiple reasons. It tries to find the suitable treatments to solve the problems and to establish programs and plans to solve them in the present and future. This study provides data and information about the unemployed graduates for the decision makers and planners in order to guide them towards the scientific solutions for the problem. The descriptive analytical approaches have been used to solve the unemployment problem and by using data which are collected from a specific questionnaire. The number of observations was 300, delivered to the graduates of Duhok Colleges of the University of Duhok. In order to achieve the objective of research, it was categorized to various lines. The first deals with the concept of unemployment, kinds and reasons. The second includes an analytical study to the unemployment phenomenon among the graduates. The number of conclusions and recommendations were extracted.


Article
The Possibility of Applying Total Quality Management in Health Organizations A Pilot Study for the Managers Opinions in Ibn Al-Atheer Teaching Hospital in Mosul
إمكانية تطبيق إدارة الجودة الشاملة في المنظمات الصحية دراسة استطلاعية لآراء المدراء في مستشفى ابن الأثير التعليمي في الموصل

المؤلفون: Akram A. AL.Taweel أكرم أحمد الطويل
الصفحات: 231-253
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الخلاصة

Abstract This research comes to shed a light on the capability of applying the requirements of TQM in the study under discussion hospitals in Nineveh governorate. Hospitals are considered as serving organizations which provides health services to the society, and concerned with an important aspect of individuals’ life that is health. Therefore, we should pay a great attention to such humanitarian demand and applying TQM considering as a philosophy suits the demands and requirements of the society. Generally the research tries to answer some questions amongst them: 1. Do the Managers who work in the hospital under discussion have a good knowledge about the concept of TQM and its aims and requirements? 2. Are the requirements of TQM in hospital under discussion according to the opinions of Managers available? The research reached to the following findings: The statistical analysis in Ibn Al-Atheer in Mosul City showed that it is the most responding one. In order to raise the performance of the hospital under discussion, some suggestions formed the most important of them are based on these conclusions that the research reaches, number of recommendations presented a number of recommendations suit to these conclusions


Article
Reduce the Cost of Poor Quality Using the Six Sigma Approach in the Face of Defects: A Case Study in Children Wear Factory in Mosul
تخفيض كلف الفشل باستخدام منهج الحيود السداسي في مواجهة العيوب دراسة حالة في معمل الألبسة الولادية في الموصل

المؤلفون: Ali H. Alyamoor علي حازم اليامور
الصفحات: 255-274
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الخلاصة

Abstract The six sigma is of the latest approaches to reach the high degree of quality, it aims to achieve a perfect or near of perfection in all facets of business in the enterprise by reducing wastes and opportunities for the emergence of defect, reduce the distortions and achieve customer satisfaction. As a result of this, much of the financial benefits can be achieved by the application of this approach. The most important of these benefits is to reduce the cost of poor quality, increase the sigma level cause of decrease the number of defects. This leads to reduce the cost of poor quality, to certain from that may used the case study approach in Children Wear Factory at Mosul to be the area to conduct research to clarify the effect of the application of six sigma approach on the cost of poor quality. The relationship between the proportion of defects and the cost of poor quality in factory, the research found a number of conclusions that the most important of them, six sigma approach in line with the entrance of modern quality, which is based on the philosophy of continuous improvement in quality. The application requires an increase in the cost of prevention, because the good design of the product. The use of statistical methods to control processes, prevent errors in the work to ensure that quality and reduction the cost of poor quality. These are the most important financial benefits achieved by the application of this approach. The study also concluded several recommendations.


Article
Transparency of Information Systems: A Strategic Perspective
شفافية نظم المعلومات (منظور استراتيجي)

المؤلفون: Mustafa M. Saddik مصطفى محمد صديق
الصفحات: 275-284
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الخلاصة

Abstract Transparency of information systems is considered as a decisive issue for these systems. The enhancement of this transparency is achieved through acquiring analyzing, circulating and checking the information related to the system. This in turn enhances the efforts that support the behavior which achieves the strategies of transparency of information systems in solving the problems. This also requires designing the approach of the organization in applying transparency, in away that suits its condition and nature and contributes to the strategic operation of the organization through being receptive to the society to ensure its existence and continuity. The importance of transparency is reflected in signaling the availability of information related to a given organization, effort and variation the transparency in its degree throughout the parts of the organization. They connect it with the environment to achieve the organizational aims. The organization should use transparency of information systems due to its obvious influence during the current situation and future of the organization as it lives in a renewing environment.


Article
The Possibility Of Compatibility Between The Educational Principles And Technical Requirements Of e- Learning: A Pilot Study to The Opinions of Lecturers And Students of in Department of Management Information-College of Administration and Economics Mosul University
إمكانية المواءمة بين المرتكزات التعليمية والمستلزمات التقنية للتعليم الإلكتروني دراسـة اسـتطلاعية لآراء عينة من التدريسيين والطلبة في جامعة الموصل – كلية الإدارة والاقتصاد - قسم نظم المعلومات الإدارية

المؤلفون: Bassam A. Yousif بسام عبد الرحمن يوسف
الصفحات: 285-306
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الخلاصة

Abstract The current research based on models attempting to simulate the Arab and foreign universities in adopting e-learning applications to reduce the digital gap in knowledge fields between those universities and University of Mosul. Based on the foregoing, the requirements for e-learning is one of the themes that are available to various universities on an equally. The achievement of educational effectiveness as the achievement of the objectives is subject to multiple critical factors. The extent of readiness of existing pillars of education deals with these requirements to identify the feasibility of transformation. The focus was on specific technical requirements, as the basis of determining the effectiveness of e-learning. The current research has sought to identify the compatibility between the components of the educational process of both faculty and students from one hand and technical requirements of e-learning on the other. The model results have been subjected to be applied to the departments in other colleges of University of Mosul. The problem has been addressed in research academic approaches toward dealing with contemporary systems of education. These are reflected by the differences in the level of readiness of the pillars of education and research. For the purpose, department of management information systems has been selected as a field of study and included the faculty members as the first group and the second group were represented by students


Article
The Evaluation of Hospitals` Performance- Case Study in Azadi General Hospital- Dohuk
تقييم أداء المستشفيات حالة دراسية في مستشفى ازادي العام- دهوك

المؤلفون: Amina B. Said آمنة بشير سعيد
الصفحات: 307-324
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الخلاصة

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