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Predicting the Delivery Time of Public School Building Projects Using Nonlinear Regression

Authors: Zeyad S. M. Khaled --- Raid S. Abid Ali --- Mussab Faleh Hassan
Journal: Engineering and Technology Journal مجلة الهندسة والتكنولوجيا ISSN: 16816900 24120758 Year: 2016 Volume: 34 Issue: 8 Part (A) Engineering Pages: 1538-1548
Publisher: University of Technology الجامعة التكنولوجية

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Abstract

The delay in delivering public school building projects in Iraq is one of the major problems that face the construction of new school buildings. In order to enable the concerned governmental agencies to predict the expected delivery time of these projects at the time of contract assignment, two forecasting modelsare developed to aid in this matter. After reviewing a wide range of literature to determine the most common causes of delay, a questionnaire is distributed to owners, consultants, supervising engineers and contractors engaged in public school building projects. The results of the questionnaire were analyzed using the relative importance index. Nine most important causes of delay in public school building projects were assured by the respondents namely; the contractor's financial status, delayed interim payments, change orders, contractor rank(classification), work stoppages, contract value, experience of the supervising engineers, contract duration and delay penalty. Historical data concerning these causes was extracted from past records of the General Directorate of School Buildings, thennonlinear regressionwasemployedto develop two models (A & B)that can predict the final delivery time of public school building projectshaving (12) and (18) classes separately, where the Levenberg-Marquardt technique was used to develop the mathematical equations.The developedprediction equations show a degree of average accuracy of (97.79%) for schoolshaving (12) classes and (97.11%) for schools having (18) classes,with (R2) for both NLR models of (81.25%) and (87.58%) respectively.


Article
بناء نموذج رياضي للتنبؤ بعدد أيام التوقف عن العمل في مشاريع المدارس في محافظة بغداد

Author: غافل كريم اسود و محمد نعمه احمد الغانمي
Journal: Albahir journal مجلة الباهر ISSN: 23125721 Year: 2017 Volume: 5 Issue: 9+10 Pages: 97-110
Publisher: Shiite Endowment ديوان الوقف الشيعي

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Abstract

This study was conducted to examine the influence of the project size (CV), financial efficiency)CFS( and the rank of the contractor )CR( to predict the number of work stoppage days )WS( beforework starts. The historical data of )59( secondary schools having )18( classes in Baghdad city thatcompleted in )2005-2011( are used to develop the nonlinear regression model. Based on the studyanalysis, it was found that the number of days of work stoppagecould be predicted )at pre-tenderingstage) using the size of the project, the financial efficiencyand the rank degree of the contractorasindependent variables to build the mathematical model with coefficient of determination (R2=66.5%(. Model validation test showed the goodness of prediction for the number of work stoppagedays with )R2=82%( and deviation )-0.07( to )-0.52(.

على امكانية )CR( ودرجة تصنيفه ))CFS والكفاءة المالية للمقاول )CV( اجريت هذه الدراسة لأختبار تأثير حجم المشروعقبل بدء العمل. تم دراسة البيانات التاريخية لعينة من ) 59 ( مدرسة ثانوية ذات )WS( التنبؤ بعدد ايام التوقف عن العمل2011 ( لبناء نموذج الانحدار غير الخطي المتعدد.تبين بعد اجراء التحليل - 18 ( صف في مدينة بغداد والمنفذة للأعوام ) 2005 (للبيانات انه يمكن التنبؤ بعدد ايام التوقف عن العمل )قبل مرحلة التعاقد( بأستخدام حجم المشروع والكفاءة المالية للمقاولبيّن التحقق من صحة النموذج الرياضي .)R2(% ودرجة تصنيفه كمتغيرات مستقلة لبناء النموذج الرياضي بمعامل تحديد = 66.5.) وبانحراف يتراوح بين ) - 0.07 ( إلى ) 0.52 ) )R2 = انه جيد جدا في التنبؤ بعدد أيام التوقف عن العمل وبمعامل تحديد%

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